Mexican Peso Indicates Donald Trump Lost First Debate

Financial markets did not waste any time in showing their verdict on the presidential debate Monday and Donald Trump did not end up doing that well.

As Hillary Clinton spared with Trump on national television one key barometer financially of the GOP nominee’s prospects started to make a sharp move. The Mexican peso surged by over 2% against the U.S. dollar.

Recently, the currency in Mexico has moved the opposite way to the poll number for Trump. As his numbers improved, the peso would drop, reaching a new low of all time versus the dollar prior to the debate on Monday night.

However, the sudden surge by the peso during the presidential debate clearly was a reaction to the performance of Trump, according to an analyst in Mexico City.

A poll released by an international news agency on the debate found that 62% of those who watched the debate felt it was won by Clinton, while 27% said Trump came out on top.

Following the debate, Trump said he felt it went much better than he would have ever thought.

The sharp moves of late by the peso are a direct reflection of the fears investors have that the relationship between the U.S. and Mexico both politically and economically, could be hurt if Trump wins the election. Trump has proposed building a wall along the U.S. and Mexico border.

Analysts feel that the currency in Mexico will remain volatile until the November election.

The peso was not the only thing that indicated how the first debate went. Asian markets as well as stock futures in the U.S. were up on Tuesday. Markets across Europe pulled back by the middle of the day after opening up.

Experts warned that stocks could tumble if Trump won the debate.

Financial markets during the past have had problems predicting the intentions of voters like the referendum in Britain earlier this year on exiting the European Union

Even following its jump during the debate on Monday, the peso is down over 13% since the beginning of 2016. Trump began his campaign in 2015 with anti immigrant and anti Mexico rhetoric but has let up somewhat of recent.

He has said if elected he would terminate or completely renegotiate NAFTA, the free trade agreement between the U.S., Canada and Mexico. He also has threatened to put a tariff of 35% on certain goods like Ford vehicles made in Mexico, but sold in the U.S.

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